When King Charles III visited the United States last week, most of the headlines focused on ceremony, but behind the scenes, the visit was widely described as a diplomatic masterclass in navigating uncertainty and strengthening long-term alliances.
As the king noted: “We meet in times of great uncertainty … which pose immense challenges for the international community.” He continued, “Our defense, intelligence and security ties are hardwired together … measured not in years, but in decades.” And perhaps most importantly, he said, “I pray with all my heart that our alliance will continue to defend our shared values … and that we ignore the clarion calls to become ever more inward-looking.”
That last line matters the most because it reflects how serious leaders in every sector need to operate in uncertain moments. They do not retreat inward. They stay focused on the broader environment, reinforcing key relationships, mitigating risk and positioning themselves for what comes next.
The British are known for this type of strategic thinking, exemplified by Winston Churchill and the detailed contingency planning that shaped Britain’s strategy during World War II. Today, that same discipline is reflected in what the business world calls scenario planning (or scenario analysis).
Originally developed in the 1970s by Royal Dutch Shell, scenario planning helps organizations prepare for uncertainty by examining possible futures, identifying key risks and thinking through strategic responses before conditions change. While often associated with extraordinary events, it is also one of the most practical tools available for strategic planning.
In fact, it is one of my favorite summer retreat exercises.
This time of year is ideal for it. You have enough distance from the start of the year to see what is actually shifting, but still enough runway to adjust before the next cycle locks in. We use this process frequently with clients and within our own firm for “planning forward,” especially in periods of uncertainty or when something new is launching, such as a new social enterprise.
Scenario planning does not attempt to predict the future. It prepares organizations to respond when the future shifts.
Step 1: Start Outside Your Organization – Inventory the Major Trends and Uncertainties in Your Environment
Like the British royal family staying attuned to public sentiment, nonprofit leaders need to pay close attention to trends affecting their clients and organization. For social sector organizations, this means inventorying demographic trends, policy changes, workforce trends, economic pressures, changes in philanthropy, growth of competitors and the evolving needs of the communities they serve.
Because so many variables have changed in recent years, we recommend this exercise for every executive team or board. Some of our favorite retreat questions (which we often send as a pre-retreat exercise) include:
- What trends are nonprofit futurists talking about?
- What is changing in our funding environment?
- How is our workforce shifting? What shifts are anticipated in the future?
- What are our partners and competitors experiencing?
- Where are expectations rising faster than capacity?
If your starting point is internal, your scenarios will be too narrow. At this stage, the goal is a brainstorming experience without judgment. The important piece here is that you get everything out on the table and recorded.
Step 2: Focus on What Actually Matters Most
Not every trend deserves equal attention. Identify the uncertainties most likely to materially affect your organization, such as revenue shifts, workforce shortages, increased client demand or policy changes. If everything is a priority, nothing is.
During retreats, we recommend creating themes (typically during a break) of all the uncertainties and then walk through them with the team. Then, give participants voting dots to identify the top 3-6 themes most worthy of deeper discussion. This allows teams to carefully review all risks and prioritize where to focus their attention.
Step 3: Build Plausible Futures and Determine Their Impact
Once priorities are identified, begin exploring realistic scenarios.
Royal planners think through all types of events that could pose a risk to the festivities — the chance of rain, the possibility of health issues and even security threats. Similarly, you should have a thorough discussion about how the uncertainties and trends you identified could impact your organization and clients.
In a retreat, spend time discussing each prioritized theme and develop a small set of realistic scenarios that reflect different combinations of those uncertainties. For example,
- Demand will rise when the economy tightens. What would be our best next step?
- Technology changes how services are delivered faster than expected. What can we do to stay ahead and stay grounded in intentional choices?
The goal is not to predict the future perfectly. It is to build readiness and flexibility before decisions become urgent.
Step 4: Assess Probabilities and Chart Your Course
This is where scenario planning becomes strategic instead of theoretical.
While it is impossible to control the future, nonprofit organizations can take steps to shape it. As part of your scenario analysis, consider which uncertainties warrant intervention. Then, help shape policies that could improve conditions for your clients (e.g., lobby politicians for legislation or take a leadership role in coalitions developing local strategic plans).
This is where most nonprofit organizations stop short. For each scenario, make decisions in advance. Some questions we ask are:
- What would you stop doing to prioritize focus on this scenario?
- What would you accelerate to prioritize focus on this scenario?
- What partnerships would matter most? Who manages those relationships? Are they strong enough?
- What would you need from your board? Can you prepare them in advance?
- What would you need from your staff? Can you prepare them in advance?
Scenario planning only works if it changes decisions and you have a proactive response.
Step 5: Monitor and Adjust Course
Finally, use your scenario analysis to monitor events as they unfold, and adjust your course accordingly. This tool is designed to help your organization prepare for the road ahead, so utilize all the preparation and lessons learned from scenario planning to give your organization the greatest flexibility and responsiveness. This is also why we argue that KPIs and dashboards are helpful — you will see the warning signs early if you are tracking client, donor and stakeholder metrics.
For example, if you see a drop in donor retention this summer (based on trends, this is a likely scenario), what is next? Here are some scenarios we are talking about with clients:
- Decreases in donor retention and/or size of gifts
- Increases in demand due to economic downturn
- Increase in orders of your social enterprise based on media attention
- Change in government funding or policies
- Staff vacancies that stay open longer than expected
- Staff culture declines due to burnout or anxiety about change
- Similar program nearby closes or opens
If you do not define signals and watch for them, you will miss the moment to act.
And, as always, revisit and adjust your scenarios regularly with your leadership team and board. It is not just an exercise but a crucial part of how you make decisions. The goal is not certainty, but instead readiness. And readiness means that your organization will be more responsive as an organization and resilient over time.
